Research Program / Claims / precognition-2
Precognition must be understood through probability; the future, like the past, is being altered at every point.
预知必须通过概率来理解，未来与过去一样在每一个点都在被改变。
Concept precognition · Domain Nonlinear Time and Self-Cognition · ontological claim · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
First separate 'probability change' from 'past change.' Approximately 1,000 participants each report the probability of future random events 100 times; after reports are sealed, they randomly receive new information or none; compare Brier scores, calibration, and updating direction over 6–12 months. Additionally set up already-completed events with third-party sealed records to test whether what changes is judgment about the past or the recorded event itself; 'past change' without observable difference cannot be adjudicated.
Suggested paper title
Probability Updating for Future Outcomes and Previously Recorded Events: A Pre-registered Study
What it would overturn
If it is shown that past events themselves are altered by subsequent intervention, it will modify the hypothesis that new information changes beliefs about past events but not the events themselves.
Candidate labs / funders
Chris A. Roe，University of Northampton，异常认知与心理因素; Marc Wittmann，Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health，时间体验; Carey K. Morewedge，Boston University，判断与决策偏差
Specificity of Seth's formulation
Using probabilistic language does not constitute a unique prediction; one must specify when, by what magnitude, and according to what rules changes occur; otherwise any miss can be post hoc interpreted as a probability change.
Note
In Bayesian updating, probabilities of past events can change, which does not equal past events changing; before research, one must forbid explaining all results by unobserved 'channel changes.'
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim precognition-2, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/precognition-2