Research Program / Claims / channeling-7

To be "correct," precognition must perceive the probability channel that is ultimately chosen; this channel depends on past and present choices, so precognition is condition-dependent.

预知要“正确”必须感知最终被选择的那个概率渠道，该渠道取决于过去与现在的选择，所以预知是条件依赖的。

Concept channeling · Domain Trans-Lifetime Personality and Consciousness Continuity · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable

This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.

Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
First clarify the conditional model: ~1000 people, at least 200 of them self-identified skilled predictors, with 200 trials each; predictors report P(outcome|subsequent choice A) and P(outcome|subsequent choice B) in advance. After submission, the branch is randomly assigned or chosen by an isolated other participant, then the target for that branch is generated; both branch types are evaluated using log scoring and calibration curves, over a period of 18–24 months. Predictable causal branches serve as positive controls; independent random branches test for information beyond ordinary prediction.
Suggested paper title
Conditional Forecasting of Future Outcomes Under Randomized and Voluntary Branch Selection
What it would overturn
Ordinary conditional prediction conforms to probability theory; if independent random outcomes generated after the choice can be accurately predicted, this challenges the hypothesis that currently available information does not include future independent random outcomes.
Candidate labs / funders
Zoltan Kekecs，Transparent Psi Project研究者; Jan Walleczek，Phenoscience Laboratories; Stefan Schmidt，University of Freiburg; Marc Wittmann，Institute for Frontier Areas of Psychology and Mental Health
Specificity of Seth's formulation
Compared to unconditional prophecy, it adds conditionality; but without quantified conditions or a ban on post hoc attribution of failure to channel changes, it currently cannot be distinguished from ordinary conditional probability and post hoc explanations.
Note
Broad precognition literature can be classified as contested; the specific mechanism of "probability channels changing with choice" remains untested. Experiments can only test predefined operational versions and cannot observe the true history of unborn branches.
Evidence (2, DOI-verified via Crossref)

Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim channeling-7, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/channeling-7