Research Program / Claims / precognition-7
Seth designed an observable precognition experiment: write at least five predictions daily for six months, allowing a two-to-three-day grace period; Jane and Rob wrote 741 predictions in total from November 1964 to April 1965, of which 320 were significantly accurate.
赛斯设计了一个可观测的预知实验：每天写至少五条预测、持续六个月、允许二至三天宽限期；珍和罗在1964年11月至1965年4月共写下741条预测，其中320条显著命中。
Concept precognition · Domain Nonlinear Time and Self-Cognition · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
First audit all 741 original predictions, recorded dates, contemporaneous event materials, and the original criteria for the 320 hits. For prospective replication, recruit approximately 200 participants, each writing 5 predictions daily for 180 days, yielding about 180,000 predictions; submissions are sealed immediately, with explicit events, locations, times, and failure conditions, using a fixed 72-hour cap without post hoc adjustment. Blinded raters simultaneously evaluate the true window, same-season shifted windows, and other participants' matched windows; an additional experimental arm has targets randomly drawn after the report. Account for clustering and window overlap by participant and date, including audit and analysis over about 12 months.
Suggested paper title
Six Months of Time-stamped Daily Predictions: A Pre-registered Evaluation Against Matched-event Baselines
What it would overturn
If the random-target experimental arm consistently exceeds chance levels, it will modify the hypothesis that free-text predictions are no better than a pre-registered chance baseline when no available clues to prediction exist.
Candidate labs / funders
Chris A. Roe，University of Northampton，前瞻异常认知研究; Zoltan Kekecs，Transparent Psi Project，预注册与研究透明度
Specificity of Seth's formulation
The daily quantity, six-month period, and grace period are more specific than general precognition claims, but the complete event set, hit rules, and null-hypothesis hit rate are missing; these gaps determine whether the numbers can be explained.
Note
No peer-reviewed validation of this historical experiment or complete independently verifiable raw data was found; 320/741 ≈ 43.2% is not statistical significance, and with a requirement of at least 5 daily predictions for six consecutive months, about 900 would be expected; compliance, statistical definition, and whether the two individuals' data were combined need clarification.
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim precognition-7, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/precognition-7