Research Program / Claims / intuition-8
Through daily prediction practice, one can observe a distortion discrepancy between predicted and actually occurring events.
通过每日预测练习，可观察到预测事件与实际发生事件之间的失真差异。
Concept intuition · Domain Intuitive–Rational Cognitive Integration · methodological suggestion · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status supported
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
Approximately 400 participants are randomly assigned to four groups: daily prediction diary with outcome feedback, diary without immediate feedback, retrospective recall only, and probability training, over 12 consecutive weeks predicting a unified event library. Each event, probability, deadline, and adjudication criterion is locked; endpoints are calibration curves, Brier scores, and recall bias of original predictions, testing whether feedback improves accuracy and whether retrospective recall exaggerates hits. Total project duration is approximately 5 months.
Suggested paper title
Daily Forecast Logging and Outcome Feedback Reduce Calibration Error and Retrospective Distortion
What it would overturn
It would not overturn mainstream assumptions; it aligns with the existing view that "timely feedback and auditable records help identify judgment errors."
Candidate labs / funders
Barbara A. Mellers，宾夕法尼亚大学; Philip E. Tetlock，宾夕法尼亚大学; Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity：相关预测竞赛的既往资助机构
Specificity of Seth's formulation
As a recording and feedback recommendation, it heavily overlaps with prediction calibration methods; it offers no Seth-specific error direction or learning curve.
Note
"Supported" refers only to the record-and-compare process revealing biases, not to evidence that daily practice produces extraordinary predictive ability; the record itself and feedback training effects must also be distinguished.
Evidence (1, DOI-verified via Crossref)
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim intuition-8, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/intuition-8