Research Program / Claims / intuition-2

Intuitive understanding and intellectual discrimination can help one rise above one's own era, abandoning shortsighted belief frameworks.

直觉理解与智性辨别可助人跃升于自身时代之上,抛弃短视的信仰框架。

Concept intuition · Domain Intuitive–Rational Cognitive Integration · ontological claim · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable

This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.

Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
Approximately 600 participants are randomly assigned to four groups: intuitive clue training, analytical reasoning training, combined training, or an active control, training for 8 weeks with 12 months of follow-up; predictions are made on science and public events whose outcomes are not yet known, along with counterevidence-updating tasks scored objectively. Primary endpoints are Brier scores relative to contemporaneous group benchmarks and false-belief correction rates; the interaction effect of combined training is tested, controlling for knowledge, political stance, and numeracy. This experiment can adjudicate adaptive judgment advantages but cannot adjudicate the value-laden "transcending one's era."
Suggested paper title
Integrating Intuitive and Analytical Training to Improve Belief Updating and Prospective Forecast Accuracy
What it would overturn
If combined training produces a stable benefit beyond the sum of the two trainings alone, it would correct the null hypothesis that "intuition training and analytical training exhibit no interaction in belief updating."
Candidate labs / funders
Barbara A. Mellers,宾夕法尼亚大学:[研究者主页](https://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/mellers/); Philip E. Tetlock,宾夕法尼亚大学; Joel Pearson,新南威尔士大学 Future Minds Lab
Specificity of Seth's formulation
It does not specify which beliefs are erroneous, what constitutes transcendence, or how soon effects appear; it is broader than open-mindedness and cognitive debiasing hypotheses and yields no ready distinguishable prediction.
Note
Departure from contemporary consensus must not itself be counted as success; external truth values, prediction deadlines, and scoring criteria should be specified in advance.
Evidence (1, DOI-verified via Crossref)
  • The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics — Barbara Mellers, Eric Stone, Pavel Atanasov, Nick Rohrbaugh, S. Emlen Metz, Lyle Ungar, Michael M. Bishop, Michael Horowitz, Ed Merkle, Philip Tetlock (2015), Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied
    743人、两年预测数据将开放思维、认知能力、概率训练和更新行为与准确率联系起来,但未检验“超越时代”。[论文](https://doi.org/10.1037/xap0000040)

Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim intuition-2, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/intuition-2