Research Program / Claims / expectation-9
Specific procedure: want something, consciously visualize it approaching the probability frontier, then 'like a pebble' drop it into Framework 2, and with a specific rhythm forget it.
具体操作：想要某物，有意识地观想它靠近概率前沿，然后“如卵石般”投入框架2，以特定节奏忘却它。
Concept expectation · Domain Belief Dynamics and Mind–Body Regulation · methodological suggestion · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status untested · ★ fundable
This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.
Seth sources (book §session)
Adjudicating experiment
About 600 people are randomly assigned to timed visualization followed by attention shifting, equal visualization followed by continuous reminders, implementation intentions, or a neutral task for 8 weeks; objective goal attainment, rumination, and actual behavior are recorded. Embedded in Question 5, a one-week phone-based prospective memory task orthogonally manipulates event-occurrence expectation and actual base rate; the server independently records events and times; measures include specified response upon encountering the target, post-event recognition, false alarms, source memory, and time estimation. The specific visualization duration and forgetting interval are preregistered; the entire project lasts about 9 months.
Suggested paper title
Imagery Scheduling and Attentional Disengagement in Goal Attainment, Prospective Memory, and Temporal Recall: A Preregistered Trial
What it would overturn
Only if the occurrence rate of independently generated events changes after excluding behavioral, attentional, and memory mechanisms would it challenge the assumption that cognitive strategies influence external outcomes through known information and behavioral channels.
Candidate labs / funders
Gabriele Oettingen，纽约大学动机研究实验室; Phil Peper; B. Hunter Ball，得克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校
Specificity of Seth's formulation
Provides a sequence of visualization then letting go, but does not quantify the so-called specific rhythm or provide an independent criterion for Framework 2; the order and interval effects could be tested first.
Note
Expecting an event to occur is not identical to prospective memory; prospective memory requires an intention to perform an action at that time; post hoc recall and time estimation should be independent endpoints and cannot be substituted for actual event occurrence.
Evidence (1, DOI-verified via Crossref)
Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim expectation-9, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/expectation-9