Research Program / Claims / beliefs-6

Prediction itself can influence probabilities and reinforce current belief cues, so some probability lines can sometimes be known in advance.

预测本身可以影响概率并强化当前信念线索，因此某些概率线有时能提前预知。

Concept beliefs · Domain Belief Dynamics and Mind–Body Regulation · testable prediction · interface 3/3 · testability 3/3 · status contested · ★ fundable

This program treats the Seth Material as a source of hypotheses, not as doctrine to be validated. Lead dossiers are AI-compiled from the corpus with a book-and-session citation after every statement; literature reviews are AI web-search summaries whose references were all DOI-verified against Crossref; the agenda draft is an AI synthesis. None of it is Seth's original text, and none of it represents scientific consensus. English fields are machine-translated; the Chinese text is authoritative.

Seth sources (book §session)

personal-reality §654

Adjudicating experiment

About 1,000 people are randomly assigned to daily prediction practice or an equally timed control for 4 weeks. Tasks are divided into three types: genuine cues, behaviorally influenceable outcomes, and independent random targets generated after prediction submission; each person has about 400 random trials with pre-stratified emotional salience. Hits, false alarms, reaction times, and confidence are recorded; signal detection models appropriate to the task estimate d′ and criterion c, with probability calibration reported; pre-registration covers domain × training interactions, participant clustering, multiple comparisons, and stopping rules, using server timestamps and independent randomness audits.

Suggested paper title

Forecast Practice, Emotional Salience, and Predictive Discrimination: A Four-Week Pre-registered Randomized Study

What it would overturn

Only if future random targets can be predicted after cutting off information leakage and behavioral influence would the hypothesis that 'prediction responses are statistically independent of subsequently generated independent random targets' be overturned.

Candidate labs / funders

Zoltan Kekecs，Eötvös Loránd University，Transparent Psi Project相关研究; Jan Walleczek，Phenoscience Laboratories; Stefan Schmidt，University of Freiburg；三者均参与上述2025年研究

Specificity of Seth's formulation

Self-fulfilling prediction overlaps with existing expectancy effects; 'probability lines' have no observable definition and no specification of who, which domain, or how far in advance, preventing post hoc selection of successful domains.

Note

Regarding extended question 4: pre-specified domain differences and independent replication should be tested; a rise in hit rate alone may reflect criterion shifts, and contested does not mean that positive and negative evidence are evenly balanced.

Evidence (3, DOI-verified via Crossref)

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making — Dimitrios Petropoulos Petalas; Hein van Schie; Paul Hendriks Vettehen (2017), PLOS ONE
实验预测信息能够改变经济决策，支持经行为传递的自我实现效应；不支持直接改变独立随机事件。[论文](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0174353)
Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events — Daryl Bem; Patrizio E. Tressoldi; Thomas Rabeyron; Michael Duggan (2016), F1000Research
汇总90项实验报告小幅正效应，但异质设计与选择性报告等争议限制其对异常预知的证明力。[论文](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4706048/)
Metascientific replication project with the advanced meta-experimental protocol of the transparent psi project procedures for testing the precognitive effect claimed by Bem — Jan Walleczek; Nikolaus von Stillfried; Stefan Schmidt; Marc Wittmann; Karolina A. Kirmse; Jorge Moll; Zoltan Kekecs (2025), PLOS ONE
三项研究共26,483人、420,472个关键试次，未稳定复制原预知效应；中间出现的反方向效应也未在后续研究中复制。[论文](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0335330)

Cite: Future Mind Institute, Seth Material Research Agenda, claim beliefs-6, https://www.seth.org.cn/en/research/claims/beliefs-6